The Soros Solution, the Rand Corporation, and the Demographic Destruction of Ukraine (Part I of II)

Yes, both the NATO-proxy war and the likely devastation of Ukraine were planned years in advance as demonstrated by publicly available official statements and documents.

Facing Demographic Destruction

Ukraine is facing demographic destruction. Even prior to the war, Ukraine possessed a fertility rate below the population replacement rate, had an aging workforce, and was experiencing accelerated population loss due to outward migration. In fact, for nearly three decades now, Ukraine has been experiencing “brain drain” (aka, human capital flight) — the exodus of skilled and talented professionals to (primarily) other European nations. The human capital flight has been ongoing because — and in distinct contrast to the other post-Soviet states — Ukraine has flatlined economically since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Data below on all these concerns.

The war has accelerated the migration, adding a massive refugee population to the already considerable number of expatriated Ukrainians. Military conscription, moreover, has further devasted key age ranges in the male population, removing men who otherwise had potentially decades to contribute as economically productive taxpayers, husbands or relationship partners, and fathers. Large numbers of men in key age ranges have either fled Ukraine, or been killed or disabled as a result of their military service. Please see American Exile, “Into the Russian Meat Grinder: Conscripts and Mercenaries in Ukraine” (19 Mar 2024).

We will run the numbers shortly, examining and visualizing the data from various respectable mainstream sources such as the UN, the World Bank, Macrotrends, and the Gapminder Foundation. For context, we will compare Ukraine with two other European nations possessing roughly similar population sizes for time period under discussion: 1991 to 2023. Those two contrasting nations are Poland, a former Soviet state like Ukraine, and Spain, a Southern European NATO state.

After reviewing what the data reveals, we will turn to even darker territory. It is no accident that Ukrainian men are being fed to the Russian meat-grinder. This was proposed — was contingency-planned — by the West starting as early as 1993. In other words, it was first discussed twenty-one (21) years before 2014 Maidan coup in which the USA helped overturn a democratically elected Ukrainian government, and twenty-nine (29) years before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The plan, which was first floated in 1993 and subsequently refined and restated: use Ukrainian (East European) troops instead of American or Western European (NATO member) troops against Russia. Why? Because doing so would be more cost-effective and politically acceptable. Your author can prove this allegation based on evidence from still publicly available official statements and documents — Open-Source Intelligence. You are encouraged to read the original sources and verify for yourself.

First, however, let us review the data to understand better the tragedy happening in Ukraine: the demographic destruction of a society, of a nation. More truthfully, the contignecy-planned demographic destruction — the intentional sacrifice of a people.  

Ukraine: Economic Stagnation and Decline

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in direct contrast to the other former Soviet States, Ukraine has experienced economic stagnation and a general decline in quality of life for the majority of Ukrainian citizens and residents. This has strongly encouraged the exodus of skilled and talented Ukrainians, further impacting Ukraine’s economic prospects. All this has occurred despite — or perhaps because of — Ukraine becoming a special project of the USA. 

To quote the then Assistant Secretary of State for Europe in December 2013, Victoria Nuland, speaking at the US-Ukraine Foundation Conference (US Gov, 13 Dec 2013):

Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, the United States has supported Ukrainians as they build democratic skills and institutions, as they promote civic participation and good governance, all of which are preconditions for Ukraine to achieve its European aspirations. We’ve invested over $5 billion to assist Ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic Ukraine.

For American efforts from 1991 to 2013, what were our results at the time of Nuland’s above speech? Ukraine was generally considered the poorest and most corrupt nation in Europe.

The data visualization below shows Ukraine’s progress or lack thereof under USA influence. Again, for comparative purposes, Ukraine will be benchmarked against two European nations roughly similar in population size for the time period under consideration: Poland, a former Soviet state like Ukraine, and Spain, a Southern European NATO state.

Take a moment with the displayed data, please. In terms of Real GDP per Capita, Ukraine has not improved since it was part of the USSR. Ukraine has in fact declined. Billions of US dollars in support prior to the start of the 2022 NATO-proxy war, nothing to show for it.

The Poland-Ukraine contrast shows us the truth. Our American efforts did NOT contribute to a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine. But we did cooperate with and protect deeply corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs. In return, Ukraine would serve as a staging ground for Western efforts to destabilize Russia and force regime change. The evidence for this claim is presented in Part II, after the demographic (population and economic) data review below which comprises Part I.

Ukraine: Brain Drain and Population Decline

To no surprise, and prior to the NATO-proxy war starting in 2022, Ukrainians who could find better prospects elsewhere were leaving Ukraine — the national population was suffering decline in large part due to voluntary migration. The war accelerated this trend, but obviously did not cause it. The population loss due to outward migration clearly started the early 1990s and persisted over the past three decades. Please review the graph below.

We cannot blame the Russian invasion of 2022 for this general trend. In contrast, the American efforts to “ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic Ukraine,” efforts which focused on controlling political outcomes and hence entrenchin  a corrupt but compliant oligarchy, most certainly did contribute to the Ukrainian human capital flight over the past three decades.

So we have both (1) a stagnant or declining economy mismanaged by corrupt oligarchs supported by the West; and (2) the ongoing exodus of talented, ambitious and skilled professionals — “brain drain.”

This holds also for many nations in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ndulu, 2004; Usman, et alia, 2022). To quote from a recent scholarly article in the peer-reviewed journal Sustainability: “human capital flight and brain drain, poverty, corruption, and inequality negatively affect sustainable economic growth” (Usman, et alia, 2022). No surprises there.

Add Human Trafficking to the Mix

We also have a darker side to the Ukrainian migration — one also shared by many nations in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ndulu, 2004; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, 2023). That darker side: human trafficking.

In 2015, one year after the Maidan coup which installed an American-friendly government, the International Organization for Migration (20 Oct 2015) issued the following “warning of the growing vulnerability of Ukrainians to human trafficking,” noting that

every fifth potential labour migrant from Ukraine [20%] is now willing to cross the border illegally, work in locked premises, or give their passports to their employer. Four years ago, this vulnerable group that would have been inclined to take dubious job offers comprised only 14 per cent of potential labour migrants.

Likewise, the IOM (20 Oct 2015) reported that the number of Ukrainian migrants working abroad “irregularly” — less politely, illegally — increased from 28% in 2011 to 41% in 2015. The situation has worsen not improved. Since 1991, the year for which Nuland dates the USA-Ukraine partnership, millions of Ukrainian citizens — many desperately so — have fled Ukraine in search of better opportunities.

Although this outward migration has strong similarities with many nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern European Ukraine differs significantly in two related vital regards: the age demographic (displayed earlier), and the fertility rate.

Ukraine: Declining Fertility Rate & No Economic Upside

In the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, over half the population is under the age of 30; in Ukraine, the majority of the population is over the age of 30. In the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, for the most part the fertility rates are at or above the replacement rate: roughly 2.1 children per woman. Ukraine, similar to many nations in Europe, is well below the replacement rate. So even prior to the war, Ukraine had an aging population and hence an aging workforce.

Typically, in developing nations, the fertility rate declines when the economy advances; as a concomitant, more women receive advanced education, enter the workforce, and thus have fewer children. The general quality of life improves, but family sizes typically get smaller since raising children becomes more expensive both in real dollars and in opportunity cost. Not so for Ukraine.

We may compare the fertility rates for Ukraine, Poland, and Spain — all track the same general trend. But when we compare the Real Capita per GDP for each nation, we see that Ukraine is clear outlier among these (and nearly all other) European nations: for Ukraine, the fertility rate has declined well below replacement (roughly, 2.1) but economic growth remains stagnant.

From Demographic Challenges to Demographic Destruction

In contrast to its European peers, Ukraine faces the worst of all possible outcomes. The economy is not advancing — again, Real GDP per Capita was higher when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union! The population is both aging and declining —with serious consequences for Ukraine’s economic future. The fertility rate is well below replacement. And even prior to the war, the nation was experiencing an ongoing exodus of talented, ambitious and skilled professionals.

To support the elderly, the disabled, the retired, and the unemployed, from where will Ukraine find the needed base of workers — of economically productive tax-paying citizens?  The age demographic chart and the fertility rate graph show a nation facing significant demographic challenges. The bad news gets worse. The NATO-proxy war has shifted Ukraine from a nation facing significant demographic challenges to a nation undergoing demographic destruction.

The Men Conscripted, the Women Sex-Trafficked, the Children — Who Knows?

American Exile covered in a recent post (19 Mar 2024) the best estimates available of Ukrainian men killed or disabled so far in the war, or missing, or otherwise unavailable for Ukraine’s new conscription campaign with the draft age now lowered at the urging of the USA. We now turn the predatory exploitation of the Ukrainian refugees, with a particular focus on the women and children.

Although Ukraine has had a steady population loss since 1993, it did experience a mass exodus in 2022-2023, which presumably continues in 2024. The UN Refugee Agency estimates roughly 6.5 million Ukrainian war refugees as of February 2024. The data visualization below shows population loss per year, covering the time period from 2004 (the year of the USA-supported Color Revolution) to 2023.

Where did the Ukrainian war refugees go? The chart below shows the nations in Eurasia with — according to the UN data— at least 5000 Ukrainian refugees.

None of these nations were prepared for such a flood of refugees. Ironic, since various Western European leaders have claimed that Ukraine signed off on the Minsk Agreements — the peace treaty which settled the 2014 crisis — solely to buy more time to prepare for war with Russia. We discussed above the economic stagnation of Ukraine since 1991 — despite or because of the billions of dollars the USA invested to control the political outcomes in Ukraine. No matter. Human trafficking was already problem for Ukraine: the millions of refugees has made it a catastrophic one, but a source of amusement and sensationalism for some Western observers.

Sexploitation as Comedy with a Short Memory: MSM on Putin’s War

On 7 March 2024, on the Swedish television show Invandrare för Svenskar, the comedian Elaf Ali joked that the Ukrainian refugees to Sweden were blending in well at least in terms of appearance: “it's maybe most obvious in, like, the brothels” (The Local, 19 Mar 2024). This drew a furious response from the Ukrainian Ambassador to Sweden, Andriy Plakhotnyuk, who demanded an apology (RT, 18 Mar 2024). But in truth, Ali’s joke was old news — and the problem started in Ukraine itself and well prior to the war.

In 2013, eleven (11) years before Ali’s controversial joke on Swedish TV, the Australian filmmaker Kitty Green produced and directed Ukraine is not a Brothel— a documentary focused on the activities of Фемен, a feminist activist group in Ukraine dedicated to protecting women’s rights and hence protesting against sex tourism among other concerns.

Screenshot from the documentary Ukraine Is Not A Brothel (2013; 2016). Cited under Fair Use.

The sex-trafficking of Ukrainian women and children, however, goes back much further. Even the American government acknowledges so — albeit without accepting any responsibility for the failure of the Nuland agenda. From the USAID fact sheet Ukraine: Trafficking in Persons (16 Dec 2022), please consider the two following highlights:

1. Ukraine has been a source, transit, and destination country for human trafficking since the early 1990s. Men, women, and children are trafficked for the purposes of forced labor and begging and sexual and other forms of exploitation.

2. Prior to Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Mission in Ukraine estimated that more than 300,000 Ukrainians had suffered from human trafficking since 1991. An estimated 46,000 Ukrainians were trafficked during 2019-2021; 29,000 abroad and 17,000 in Ukraine. 

Again, as the USAID recognized in 2022, Ukraine has had a significant problem with human trafficking “since the early 1990s” (16 Dec 2022).  Your author cannot improve upon a summary quote from the same fact sheet: “The population is extremely vulnerable.” Indeed, but our leadership knew this well prior to the NATO-proxy war. As we will soon enough discuss, they considered this — the demographic destruction of Ukraine — a risk worth accepting. Now we have the needed context for Ali’s recent and insensitive jest about Ukrainian prostitutes in Sweden.  

Child Prostitution and More

But we are not done with the sex trafficking yet. Again, Ukraine was notorious for sex tourism — including child prostitution — well prior to the Russian invasion of 2022. In 2003, for example, nineteen (19) years earlier, the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research published a damning report: “The Situation of Children in Ukraine and Their Vulnerability to Commercial Sexual Exploitation” (EPCAT, 2003). In 2012, nine (9) years later, Natalia Antonova, writing for The Guardian, described some of the dehumanizing horrors of Ukraine’s “prospering sex industry” which she found was “unregulated and scary” and “due to widespread corruption” (24 Apr 2012). Due to widespread corruption in Russia? No. Widespread corruption in Ukraine.

Fast forward four (4) years, the USA’s own Department of Labor noted in their “2016 Findings on the Worst Forms of Child Labor” (US Gov, 2016) that Ukraine was one of the nations which had made “Minimal Advancement” in protecting children. This includes protecting children from sex-trafficking.  Thirteen (13) years since the 2003 report on “Children in Ukraine and Their Vulnerability to Commercial Sexual Exploitation.” Minimal progress — just not part of the Nuland agenda. That same year, Vice Magazine weighed in with “Western Sex Tourists are Still Looking for Love in Ukraine” (10 Nov 2016).  

So just what did the USA under the guidance of Victoria Nuland spend those five billion dollars on? In Nuland’s own words from 2014, “to give Ukraine the future it deserves.”  A future which like the recent past includes the international sex trafficking of women and children. But starting in 2022, with the opportunity to blame Russia, the Western media took notice again. The common theme to all these news stories — the evilness of Russia’s brutal invasion. Not the long-existing and ongoing corruption of the Ukrainian government, aided and abetted by the USA, perpetuating a failed Ukrainian society and state. Let’s go through a selection of news stories.

But It All Began in 2022 — Blame Putin

The BBC reported on “How the sex trade preys on Ukraine’s refugees” (27 Mar 2022) because parts of Ukraine have become unlivable: “Five weeks into Russia’s brutal invasion… Bombs, bloodshed, trauma.”  But the truth is that the sex trade was preying on Ukrainian citizens and Ukrainian migrants well before the Russian invasion in 2022 — the invasion just greatly accelerated an existing dynamic. 

PBS NewsHour (16 Nov 2022) delivered a similar spin: “Human traffickers exploit desperation of Ukrainian refugees and their children.” This is not false. But the report makes it seem as if all this occurred after the Russian invasion. In truth, to repeat, human traffickers have been exploiting the desperation of Ukrainian citizens and Ukrainian migrants (including children) for decades now.

USA Today: Farcical Humanitarianism

Credible research from numerous established sources shows that the sex trafficking of Ukrainian women and children has been an ongoing problem. (For a start, please review the sources cited above). But trust USA Today (23 May 2022) to come up with the only proper conclusion: “Putin's war in Ukraine is driving a hidden horror: Sex trafficking of women and children.” Where to begin?

The USA Today (23 May 2022) coverage exists in service of the American elites seeking regime change in Russia at the cost of Ukraine. It does not concern the actual victims — it exonerates the West. How so?

First, the horror has not been hidden, but it has become appropriated for political purposes after the Western MSM decided to worship Zelensky. Second, the driving forces are the stagnation of the Ukrainian economy and corruption of the Ukrainian government: not the NATO-proxy war in Ukraine. Third, it is fair and just to deem the war an accelerating force — but at the same time, Western leaders had to know (based both on data and on commonsense) that such was a possible if not likely outcome.

Who Knew — and When?

In fact, our leaders did know. We now come to the ugly and unholy. Truth so unbelievable it seems a conspiracy theory by Alex Jones. The sacrifice of Ukraine was contingency-planned years in advance. We now come to George Soros, the Rand Corporation, and various worthies from the USA government. (Continued in Part II).